----- Original Message -----
From: Kevin Straub
To: Kevin Straub
Sent: Thursday, September 30, 2010
11:32 PM
Subject: UN calls special meeting to
address food shortages amid predictions of riots
Do some research on this, friends. I believe things
are much worse than even this article represents. I will be very surprised if
wheat and other staples aren’t at least triple what they are now, by this time
next year. This article doesn’t address the impact on prices that will be had
by the failure of the money. If you think not, just google
Gerald Celente and listen to him. He is a high paid
economic adviser and I believe he is bang-on. Things are going to get really
spectacular from here on out. I believe that once the Christmas sales numbers
are in, which will be dire, there are going to be no more fixes to this thing.
The Fed can’t keep injecting money into the system because it will cause
runaway inflation. It has to. Nor can they hike interest rates because it will
cause depression. They can’t give money away nor can they withhold it. This is
the mother of all squeezes, between the proverbial rock and hard place. The jig
is up. Nobody wants to borrow at any rate because faith in the system is gone.
This whole thing is coming to grinding halt, in fact it has been doing that all
along – the money from the sky dropped out of Ben’s helicopter has only been
keeping up the appearance that things are maybe okay, maybe going to get
better. But it has all been an illusion, a card house filled with smoke and mirrors.
If you have any cash at all, spend it. Help us get books and tracts published.
We’re working hard to get the message out. The fourth angel is coming into the
picture, you know (Rev. 18). If you have debt get rid of it. Sell your house,
apartment, new car, etc. Learn to live simply. Join with others who are
finished with this world and ready to go all-out for God.
Have you been watching the price of metals? There’s a
good indication that there’s trouble. Cash is heading for the exits. There is
still time to buy metals, but it will get more difficult to take possession.
Don’t buy paper certificates under any circumstances. You don’t want to get
burned by short sellers who won’t be able to pony up. If you don’t have enough
for gold and silver, buy grains, legumes, and toilet paper. Anything that
people need and can barter for. I’m not joking. This is it. This isn’t going to
be nearly as pretty as was the Great Depression. This time there will be blood.
~KS
è
Poor harvests and demand from developing countries could
push cost of weekly shop up by 10%
·
The Observer,
Sunday 5 September 2010
Global
wheat harvest this year has been hit by droughts and floods. Photograph: Graham
Turner for the Guardian
Two years after the last food crisis, when prices surged by
nearly 15% in the UK, food inflation is back. Soaring global food prices have
prompted City and food industry experts to warn that the cost of the weekly
shop is set to rise by up to 10% in the coming months.
As in 2008, rocketing prices are the result of rising demand and supply
shortages caused by freak weather and poor harvests. Moreover, these conditions
are exacerbated by speculation on commodity markets and changing diets in
fast-growing Asian countries.
Last week, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) called an
emergency meeting for 24 September to discuss the food crisis. In Mozambique,
riots broke out following the government's decision to raise bread prices by
30%, leaving seven people dead and hundreds injured. At the same time the
Russian government extended its export ban on wheat by another 12 months as it
battles drought, shortages and inflation at home, which threatens to push up
prices further. European wheat prices hit more than €231 (£192) a tonne last week, just below last month's two-year high of
€236 but still 60% higher than a year ago in sterling terms. Corn prices are at
their highest level since June 2009 while sugar has been on a rollercoaster
ride after hitting a 29-year peak in February.
FAO economist Abdolreza Abbassian raises the prospect of further civil unrest in
less developed countries if the price of basic food continues to rise:
"Russia's move is another unfortunate development that will prolong upward
pressure on grain prices and contribute to higher price instability in world
markets. Rioting may reappear in poor districts around the world if prices of
basic foodstuff commodities continue to
rise further. "
Surging wheat prices, along with higher sugar and oil-seed costs, drove the
FAO's international food price index up 5% last
month, the biggest rise since last November. The organisation
estimates this year's wheat crop at 646m tonnes – down 5% from last year – while world barley
production, also hit by bad weather in the former Soviet Union and the EU, is
forecast to drop by 22% to a 30-year low of 129m tonnes. Last month global meat prices hit a 20-year high.
In the UK, Premier Foods, owner of the Hovis
brand, has warned the global shortage of wheat could push up the cost of bread
by at least 5p a loaf, while other food brands such
as McDougalls flour and Mr
Kipling cakes will also cost more.
A leading UK supplier of flour, Rank Hovis, is to
increase its prices from 6 September. Soaring barley prices mean that the
pub price of a pint of beer could top £4 this time next year.
Experts fear that UK food price inflation, which was running at an annual
rate of 3.4% in July, could now rise to 10% – depending on whether costs
continue to climb and to what extent food manufacturers absorb the increases.
The Grocer's food and drink editor Alex Beckett reckons that if
prices for commodities such as wheat, sugar, cocoa and palm oil remain at
current levels, by January the weekly shop could cost 10% more than 12 months
previously.
Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec, said: "If the current rise
in prices is sustained, food price inflation might climb to 7-8% by
mid-2011." And Philip Rush, at Nomura, sees food prices going higher over
the next year, tipping back up to above 5% year-on-year growth.
Meat
Global meat prices have risen sharply as a drop in production from
exporters such as Argentina and the US has coincided with rising demand from
China, where consumers are eating more meat than they used to. The FAO's index of meat prices in August climbed to its highest
level since it started compiling the index in 1990, up 16% over the past year.
Lamb prices are at a 37-year high, beef prices are at their highest level in
two years and pork and poultry have also become dearer.
Mark Topliff at Eblex,
which represents the English beef and sheep industry, explains that in recent
years, falling cattle prices have led to fewer farmers keeping cows in major
exporting nations like Argentina, Brazil and the US, the world's biggest beef
producer. The removal of EU subsidies under the common agricultural policy for
British and European sheep farmers has also led to a decline in sheep numbers.
Wheat
The European flour milling association has highlighted the role of
speculators in driving up wheat prices, although the global shortage appears to
be the main factor. The main culprit is the weather – wheat prices have been
going up since the summer when crops were hit by a drought and wildfires in
Russia and dry weather in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, compounded by unusually wet
weather in Canada and the floods in Pakistan.
Russia, the world's fourth-biggest wheat producer, has imposed an export
ban on grain amid its worst drought in at least 50 years, and prime minister
Vladimir Putin warned last Thursday that the ban could stay in place until
after the 2011 harvest, forcing importers in the Middle East and North Africa
to turn to Europe and the US for supplies.
"This has completely changed the complexion of the market," said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan, a
commodities analyst at Barclays Capital. "We see further upside for corn
and wheat prices. Consuming countries are scrambling to gain access to
supplies," she warns.
Britain's wheat crop is expected to be close to average this year, but
Germany, which had more rain in August, could become reliant on wheat imports
for the first time in 10 years. The winter wheat harvest will be 9% lower this
year than last, according to the German farmers' association, forcing Germany to
import grain from France and the US.Bad weather has
also affected the quality of the wheat, which suffers when it stands too long
in the rain. Lower-quality wheat is used as animal feed.
The premium for high-quality milling wheat used in bread, cereals and
biscuits, which now costs about £195 a tonne, has
climbed to £30-£40 from the typical £10-£15.
"If we don't get a bumper harvest from the southern hemisphere, namely
Argentina and Australia [due at Christmas], the wheat price could continue to
stay where it is," said Guy Gagen, chief arable
adviser at the National Farmers' Union. The Northern hemisphere – the US,
Canada, Russia and northern Europe – produces 80% of the world's wheat supply.
Experts note, however, that the market is not in the same position as it
was in 2007/08, when global wheat stocks were very low, as there have been two
seasons of replenishment. The problem is that many countries will not release
their surplus stocks to the market but are hoarding them, says Alexander Waugh,
director general of the National Association of British and Irish Millers.
On a brighter note, he adds: "High prices tend to encourage farmers to
plant more crops. The situation may be uncomfortable but it's not out of
control or unmanageable."
Cocoa
In mid-July, a US commodities trading company, Armajaro,
attempted to corner the market in cocoa by taking delivery of 7% of the world's
supply at a time when prices were at a 32-year high of $3,200 per tonne (£2,077) – a $1bn bet. The
fear was Armajaro would squeeze the market, forcing
prices even higher. In the event prices have gone into reverse, falling by more
than 25% as fears have receded that supplies from Ivory Coast, which produces
40% of the world's cocoa, would be hit by bad weather.
However, last week Barry Callebaut – the world's
biggest chocolate company, which supplies confectioners such as Nestlé – said prices would stay
high.
"Retailers do not want to accept higher prices at the moment in spite
of higher raw material costs," said the company's chief executive.
"But pressures will rise, prices will just have to increase."
Sugar
Sugar prices hit a 29-year high in February, but then fell back sharply.
However, last week Brazil – the world's biggest sugar producer – warned crops
may be lower than expected as a result of dry weather and the price climbed
back to its highest level since March.
Coffee
Coffee prices are at a 12-year high and global stocks at their lowest level
for a decade. Several coffee bars have started to push through price rises,
although Starbucks said last week that it would not raise prices.